The Donald Trump Effect: Press coverage can determine public opinion and maybe election outcomes

Originally published by Rita Handrich.

Donald Trump has been getting a lot of press since he announced his candidacy for President. He is labeled a racist by critics, yet leads the polls of Republican presidential candidates. CNN has an explanation of why they think Trump continues to poll so well (he is attacking fellow Republicans and connecting with angry voters who are frustrated with political inaction), while others see his polling as reflecting his bombastic troll-like style, and the Huffington Post announced this week they will only cover his campaign as “entertainment” since it is certainly not politics. A new Gallup poll tells us Trump’s appeal may be short-lived since 75% Americans do not consider Trump to be a serious candidate (and only 3 in 10 view Trump favorably). He certainly is getting a lot of media attention though and today’s research tells us exactly why that happens.

It might be called the “Donald Trump effect” according to Pacific Standard’s website. The researchers doing the work don’t call it that though. They simply say that in the United States, politicians from the right are the most frequently quoted voices in news stories on immigration. They actually compared France, Norway and the United States but we are focused here on their US findings since the Donald Trump candidacy is receiving so much coverage.

In the US, the research focused on the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, NPR.org, and CNN.com from January 1, 2011 to June 30, 2012. The time frame was chosen since this represented a time period when unauthorized immigration was a popular news topic in all three countries. Essentially, the researchers counted up the comments on immigration and noted who made the comments. Compared to European publications where the primary theme of immigration stories was problems facing immigrants due to restrictive and inhumane national laws—American publications tended to focus on a theme of problems caused for authorities by immigrants.

Here is some of what they found in the US publications listed above (percentages do not add to 100%):

45% of the quotes came from government officials

23% of the quotes were from right-leaning politicians

11% of the quotes were from left-leaning politicians

10% of the quotes were from immigration advocacy organizations

8% of quotes were from citizens and documented immigrants, and

5% of the quotes were from undocumented immigrants

The researchers say that how reporters choose who they will quote in stories tends to define the frame and focus of the articles/interviews. Thus, US articles tend to focus more on the problems caused for authorities by undocumented immigrants (while European publications tended to focus more on problems of the immigrants). The researchers also say that the “debate” in the US is not so much a developing debate as it is a “shouting match” wherein voices tend to speak in chorus (as encouraged by political party “talking points”) rather than actually responding to the content of opposing viewpoints.

It’s definitely a hot-button issue, in some areas more than others. Living and working a fair amount in Texas, we hear the question a lot: “Are they legal?”. This paper is an intriguing look at differences between press coverage of hot-button issues in the three countries, but from a litigation advocacy perspective it is also an intriguing study of the way the general public is exposed to information about immigration.

If the loudest voices are those of right-leaning politicians, it makes sense that jurors (and all of us, in truth) are going to have heard those arguments (that immigrants make trouble for the authorities) more than any other arguments on immigration.

It then makes sense that when your case involves immigration issues, you test (pretrial) for not only attitudes toward immigration generally, but also for beliefs about whether immigrants are more a problem for the authorities or if the laws are so restrictive they cause a problem for immigrants.

Benson, R., & Wood, T. (2015). Who Says What or Nothing at All? Speakers, Frames, and Frameless Quotes in Unauthorized Immigration News in the United States, Norway, and France American Behavioral Scientist, 59 (7), 802-821 DOI: 10.1177/0002764215573257

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Related posts:

1. Does desire trump beliefs based on facts when evaluating scientific evidence?
2. Predicting case outcomes? Lawyers are pretty dismal at it!
3. “70% of Americans see immigration as threat to American way of life”

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